Back in The Saddle! And to Brexit ...

After quite a gap, we are back. There was nothing sinister about our absence. We came to a view that our blog postings were getting sucked down the rabbit hole of Brexit and that over-thinking was going to be futile when the matter was in the hands of Government. The various factions would simply be screaming at each other from the sidelines, hoping to swing enough MPs to get a decisive result for their own position. And we were happily engaged in supporting our sister business PendryWhite in its successful re-orientation towards post-Brexit trade and the fourth industrial revolution.

So where are we? Well, we are at last coming to the end-game on Brexit with two important Cabinet Sub-Committees deciding (at last) on what our national position should be, even if one half of the nation is not going to be very happy with the result. The run-up to these meetings has been filled with standard issue attempts at manipulating the agenda. Naturally, the mainstream media, whose analytical skills, if they have any, are hardly ever in evidence, have fallen for every trick in the book.

On the one side, we have had a rather impressive political guerrilla campaign run by Jacob Rees-Mogg who has managed to convey an image of old-fashioned principle within a framework of equally old-fashioned loyalty to his Prime Minister. The Daily Telegraph has had fun exposing the influence of a foreign power - not this time the Russians (a claim few who were not pre-set Cold Warriors and Remain ideologues were very convinced by) - but by a billionaire, George Soros, the classic 'old man in a hurry', who appears to have been financing a rather forlorn attempt at a political coup.

On the other side, the bets have all been placed on a rather dubious set of economic forecasts that appeared before the House of Lords vote and now just before the Cabinet Sub-Committee discussions. These look, to the independent observer, to be little more than Project Fear Mark 2 (as the Brexiters might call it). Anna Soubry went into meltdown on broadcast TV. There are dark mutterings, not very credible, about bringing down the Government to stop Brexit. The Labour Party appears confused and divided, a vulture at the Tory feast, and seems to have nothing to say for itself.

The question for the analysts is what are the fundamentals here. The European Union represented by Michel Barnier appears to be taking a lot of Remainer rhetoric at face value and has totally misunderstood the balance of power at Westminster. As a result, he is offering no concessions and appears to be trying to railroad the Government. This has merely had the effect of making it more difficult for 'moderate voices' (aka the business interest) to shift Cabinet into compromise. As things stand, Government rhetoric has shifted to a much stronger Brexit line even if the devil is in the detail.

To predict is futile. There remains a theoretical chance that the Tory Remainers could bring down the Government on principle. It is possible that the Cabinet may not come to a view and resignations trigger a Leadership election and so weeks of volatility and nastiness. It is equally possible that Cabinet will trim and hedge and find itself with a problem on its Right. But the probability is that something will be knocked together that calls the European Union's bluff and heads us into 'no deal' territory without some compromise on their part. In the end, it is all about 'nerve'.

The Tectonic Plates Start To Settle

It would be too much to hope that politics would come to a shuddering halt with the high summer but the tectonic plates that are the two main political parties are beginning to settle into place once again.

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DISCLAIMER: These commentaries and analyses are the independent opinions of TPPR and any named guest writers. They are in no way to be construed as the opinions of any client, associate or individual who is not named as a contributor.